Shot data: a terrifyingly early look at team totals

I simultaneously love and hate writing posts at this time of year. On the plus side, there is so much happening with new transfer signings bedding into their respective teams, the promoted sides showing what they're made of and familiar faces emerging or fading as fantasy stars. With all that excitement though, comes the nagging issue of sample size, which needs to be trotted out with boring regularity during these early stages of the season. I don't think anyone reading these pages would be naive enough to assume that Liverpool have emerged as the best defensive unit of all time, yet to totally ignore their impressive start seems a bit too conservative in the other direction and might lead us to miss out on emerging trends.



With this in mind, I'm going to have a very tentative peak at the shots created/conceded by each team compared with their 2012/13 totals and see if we can we start to spot any flags which need to be watched more closely in the coming weeks. Remember, any variance here is absolutely not a reason to conclude anything, just a mere flag to look deeper as to what might be causing that difference in the coming weeks.



Attacking data

Learn About Tableau

One point to note, which will have been picked up by anyone who's even casually glanced at the weekly scores is that goals are down so far this year and this is backed up by lower shot/created chance numbers. The variance isn't huge (it amounts to about one less shot inside the box per team each week) but it could be an early indication of a more defensive league, in part due to the arrival of a number of generally conservative managers at the league's best teams (no matter the opponents, it was rare for United to get shutout in back-to-back games under Ferguson's leadership. Indeed, United only threw out two zeros in all of 2012-13 in the league).



Liverpool have the greatest variance to date, averaging just 12 shots through three games compared to 19 for last season, though that is largely driven by their woeful display against Villa (five total shots) and one game should not cause too much alarm just yet, especially with their talisman Suarez due back in a couple of weeks.



If we look at the volume of created chances we see that all but three teams come within a variance of two chances from last season - a sign to suggest that using prior year data is probably a reasonable approximation during these early stages of the season.



Defensive data

Learn About Tableau

As noted above, defensive data is generally improved across the board so it's no surprise to see a couple of strong performers here. Sunderland's improvement is as much to do with their terrible record last season (17 shots conceded) as their strong play this year (11), though in fairness, continued play like this would push them into ownable territory; a marked improvement from last campaign. Everton's data looks outstanding, though the strength of their opponents needs to be considered. Still, beating up on weak teams is a definite asset for a fantasy defense and with three strong performences from three attempts, this is probably the most significant finding to date.



As we said, there's nothing here to overreact to, with the main conclusion being that prior year data is probably a useful benchmark and thus will continue to dominate the mechanics behind the weekly rankings for the coming weeks.

Coming up

I'm back on solid ground and back to reality so the blog will be getting back into full swing very soon. Over the last three weeks I haven't had much of an internet connection and didn't have a laptop, so it's going to take me a couple of days to get the data recorded and catch up with the latest news, but I hope to have a limited data set ready for GW4 and everything up and running by GW5. In reality, this is fine as two or three weeks of current year data isn't going to help us too much anyway, so the only real value I can offer in the early weeks is some rambling notes over who is starting and who isn't.



The priority then is to get all the underlying data work done and then put together a bumper "lineup lessons" to discuss the new transfers and a couple of unexpected surprise names.



Thanks for sticking with me through this quiet period and thanks again to everyone who bought the e-book.

Romelu Lukaku - 8.0m

So here's my excuse: the players listed in each team section within the team reviews are those with stats from last season. The players listed in the transfer section are all the new signings (per Transfermarkt). Romelu Lukaku doesn't fit into either category (his data all relates to West Brom, of course) and thus I somehow excluded one of the most exciting prospects in the league from my eBook (I think I got everyone else though so check out the rest of the book if you want to see what I'm talking about).



If I'd had a bit more sleep, and a few less wedding tasks to complete, here's what I would have written:



Lukaku enjoyed a tremendous first real season in the Premier League, notching 17 goals and seven assists, supported by excellent underlying data including 97 total shots with an impressive 45 on target. These totals ranked 8th and 4th among all forwards respectively: excellent numbers for a player in a mid level team with a mid level price tag. What's even more incredible though is if we gross up the Belgian's numbers to put him on a level playing field with his pricier rivals. For example, if Lukaku played at this rate for the same minutes as van Persie, he'd have racked up 151 total shots with 70 of those coming inside the box, which would actually exceed the Dutchman's haul of 141 and 63. Now, it might not be fair to set that as our expectation, but to even be mentioned in the same postal code as a 14.0m forward is noteworthy.



Now, the issue coming into the new season is playing time and where as at West Brom he was able to solidify his place as an every week starter by mid-season, at Chelsea this sporadic playing time may continue all year. Back in September when we highlighted Lukaku as a 'Moneyball' player over at Fantasy Football Scout, it was fairly evident that if he continued to play as he was, he would displace the likes of Shane Long and Peter Odemwingie, but with Fernando Torres, Demba Ba and even Andre Schurrle providing stronger competition at Stamford Bridge, it's far from clear how Lukaku will feature this year.



We all want to get in on players with upside as early as possible, and if this were a typical baseball-style draft competition then Lukaku would absolutely be a player to target and perhaps even reach for. However, as appealing as the double gameweek is, it's far from clear that he'll start both games, and if you were assigning probabilities, you'd probably suggest the odds are against him doing so. This status could quickly change with indications that Lukaku will lead the line more often than not, but until then, the prudent move is to grab someone like Paul Lambert or Dimitar Berbatov and then react to Lukaku's situation after Chelsea have been to Old Trafford and had their off week in GW3.



Editors's note: Apparently by addressing a careless mistake I've decided to add another. Despite his 14 goals for St Mirren between 1986 and 1993 (thanks Wikipedia!), Paul Lambert is absolutely not a great pickup for 7.5m. Rickie Lambert however does appear to tick all the boxes.

eBook Sample

A couple of readers on Twitter and here on the blog rightly suggested that a bit of a preview of the eBook might be useful for people to see if it's something they'd be interested in. With that in mind, here are a couple of screenshots of the kind of analysis you'll find in the eBook:

100 player profiles including expected goals, assists and points total from prior year (based on underlying data and regression). Includes a 'buy', 'consider', 'monitor' and 'avoid' status (Coutinho here is shown as a player to consider but one who carries at least one question mark:

SImple data tells us how many games everyone played, but why did they miss the other games? The below chart provided for each defense shows which players were rotated by choice and which played whenever they were healthy:

Forecast starting lineups for all 20 teams:

Distribution of expected goals and assists by team:

I hope these screenshots whet the collective appetite a bit, and if so, head over to Lulu and grab the whole book before Saturday's GW1 deadline!

Welcome back and exciting news

Welcome back everyone! Well, actually you've probably all been around a lot more than I have, so I guess it's me who's back.



It's been a busy time for me personally (I got married on August 2nd!) and for the blog, as I've finally finished my proposed e-book season preview. It's something I've wanted to do for a couple of seasons but have finally managed to complete the project this year and, honestly, I'm delighted with how it turned out.



It's 64 pages of content (all penned by yours truly) featuring:

• 100 individual player profiles and fantasy status (buy, sell, monitor etc)


• 17 full team previews including assessment of 2012-13 data, transfer analysis and forecast lineups


• Goalkeeper rotation data


• Forecast data for the first eight gameweeks of the season


• Brief analysis of every transfer, including fantasy status


• A review of the model in 2012-13 and how it will be improved this season.

Now here's the awkward bit: there is a price tag. Aside from a couple of dollars in Google ads over the years, I've never made anything from this blog, and while it is a labour of love, it would be nice if I could at least get back the money I expect to spend when I move the site to a fixed site address, sometime later in the season. The book is published through LuLu and is available for CAD$5.99 (or your local equivalent). I figure this is less than what you'd pay for a high street magazine which may feature a couple of pages of fantasy "analysis" and then a handful of perfume ads so it seems like a fair price for everyone.



The book has been an incredible amount of work (including having my new wife help edit it between our wedding and our honeymoon - which starts on Friday) but it's been a lot of fun to make and I'm really proud of how it has turned out.



For those who are interested, the book is available at Lulu.



As for the coming season, normal, and full service service will resume in a couple of weeks after I return from our honeymoon (we're heading to S.Africa, Namibia, Botswana and Zambia in case anyone was wondering). We're due back on Sep 9th so I expect to have everything up and running for GW4. Until then, eight week forecast data and GK-rotation data can be found in the book.



As always, thanks for reading and sticking with the blog and here's to another great season.



PS. Now that the book is finished I'll be back on here and Twitter until Friday posting some general thoughts and hopefully my opening day lineup if I can make my mind up in time!

Gameweek 38 Preview

Clean Sheet Rankings

Learn About Tableau

Attacking Rankings

Learn About Tableau

Individual Rankings

Learn About Tableau

Gameweek 36 Preview

We've already talked in some detail about specfic players to target this week, with the below data supplementing that analysis:



Clean Sheet Forecast Data

Learn About Tableau

Attacking Forecast Data

Learn About Tableau

Individual Forecast Data

Learn About Tableau

Gameweek 35 Projections

Clean sheet projections

Learn About Tableau

Attacking projections

Learn About Tableau

Individual projections

Learn About Tableau

Gameweek 36 double gameweek advanced preview

It's been increasingly hard to differentiate our teams of late, and those who tried to do just that without van Persie these past couple of weeks were burned with a couple of 16+ point performances. All is not lost though, and the fixture Gods have dished out one last chance to gain some ground on your opponents, or, one last offensive to repel, depending on your position within your respective mini-leagues.



That position is going to dictate your strategy and so we need to dig a bit deeper than simply trying to maximize the points in the '36' column on the forecast charts (if indeed you believe any of the forecast on this lowly blog). First then, let's look at the main options, their forecast points and ownership numbers:

The first obvious point is that not all double gameweeks are created equal and some caution should be exercised about piling on players from Chelsea, and to an extent Swansea, given the relative strength of their opponents in gameweek 36. Mata and Hazard owners will obviously be pleased with the extra fixture and thus you would certainly lean towards keeping that pair over someone like Cazorla or Gerrard, but with one fixture coming at Old Trafford and the other seeing Tottenham come to Stamford Bridge, the ceiling (if not the floor) of the Chelsea players is somewhat limited.



The second general point to note is that a large number of the best options for the double gameweek are already owned by 15%+ managers. Again then, choosing your options is going to depend on whether you need to gain/defend ground, so for each team we're going to highlight picks for each instance.



Finally, I am putting defensive options to one side here, as the strategy there is much simpler (chase the lower expected goals conceded numbers and do with the cheapest defensive option available in each respective team).



The Elite

Chelsea - @MUN, TOT

With three genuinely elite and widely held options in Ba, Mata and Hazard, Chelsea will play a big role in GW36's double gameweeks, though the strength of those fixtures really leads me to push them down the list of desired targets. If you already own them, it's almost certainly worth holding on, but otherwise it looks like a move which carries a higher floor than normal, but a ceiling which doesn't particularly inspire.



If you're leading your league: If your key opponent holds one or more of this trio you might want to consider bringing them in, just to hedge against the possibility that both these fixtures turn into high scoring affairs (that could certainly happen at Old Trafford if United decide to play a very expansive game now the title is wrapped up). If that's the case, I would target Mata if you just want Chelsea cover, or whichever player your opponent holds if you're really trying to just hold on.



If you're chasing the pack: It's likely that your opponents own at least one of these players and this isn't where I would be targeting my transfers. Of course, if your opponents are stocked with City and Spurs players with no Chelsea coverage then the likes of Mata or Hazard make sense, but all else being equal I'd look to players with more upside than this group



Man City - @SWA, WBA

We have five potentially viable options here who are held by 5% of less of all managers, yet with City's form and Mancini's penchant for wholesale changes, I'm not sure I even feel confident picking who might play 120+ minutes, never mind who will enjoy predictable success.



If you're leading your league: There is less incentive to push the issue here so while you'll definitely want to look at Tevez - who probably grades out as the best safety/upside forward for the remainder of the season - there's probably little reason to get involved with the Aguero/Dzeko/Silva group, who all have the potential to succeed but are far from guaranteed playing time (in Silva's case more related to injury than rotation).



If you're chasing the pack: If you need to gain ground then one can make a pretty strong argument that you need to heavily invest in this City team. Unless your opponent is asleep at the wheel, they'll almost certainly have a couple of players from the Mata/Hazard/Bale/Tevez/Michu group so if you want to gain serious ground you'll need to either hit the jackpot with non-double gameweek picks, or roll the dice with a couple of the riskier double gameweekers. Tevez is the obvious pick, though too comes with significant ownership numbers, so that really just leaves Aguero and Silva (if you're going to take a flyer on City players, looking at mid level options like Milner or Yaya doesn't seem like the best way to use your transfers). There hasn't been much indication to date that they'll be ready for the West Ham game, so despite that appetizing fixture, you might be best served holding off this week then bringing that pair in for one last roll of the dice if they're cleared to play in GW36.



Tottenham - SOU, @CHE

Given the strength of that second fixture, I wouldn't try and press the issue here and would offer the same advice for everyone, whether leading or chasing the pack: buy Bale. He was a good buy option this week despite the slight injury risk, but having come through the City game unscathed, he now reclaims his spot as the best projected midfield option for the remainder of the year, and arguably the best combo of floor/ceiling among all players. Such is the strength of his forecast points, he looks like a good option to take a four point hit four, other than for Mata and Hazard whose own double gameweeks should keep things close.



With the uncertainty of everyone else's playing time, I believe there are better ways to use your remaining transfers than to chase anyone else from this team.



The Others

Swansea - MCI, @WIG

If Tottenham's team can be boiled down to one player than I don't know to communicate the gulf in class between Michu and the next player in this Swansea side. They could end the season with five midfielders with over 100 points, yet none of them outside Michu have really offered anything approaching consistent returns despite flashing promise at various times this year.



If you're leading your league:Bringing in Michu is probably a good defensive move given his huge ownership numbers, though I suspect that a portion of those owners will be teams who aren't currently active, as many of the 'busier' managers have moved the Spaniard on after a much quieter second half at the Liberty Stadium. While many are down on City, their defense is still pretty useful and they've only conceded more than once just eight times this year, with two of those coming back in August. The Wigan fixture looks more promising but then Swansea have been fairly miserable away from home of late and thus I wouldn't be expecting fireworks there either.



If you're chasing the pack: There's a chance that your opponents won't hold Michu of course, but it's likely that at least some of them do and that makes him a lot less attractive if you need to make a move. All things considered, you would obviously pick him over most (or all) players without a double gameweek, but I'd suggest the data shows he is one player you don't need to target and thus your precious transfers might be better used elsewhere if looking to differentiate.



As a defensive blocking option Michu makes a lot of sense, but be sure
to understand the kind of (limited) ceiling you're buying into before
paying a premium.



West Brom - WIG, @MCI

Along with Silva (if fit), Lukaku offers the best combination of points upside, job security and low ownership percentage, and thus should certainly be considered as a transfer target for GW36. For those needing replacements for Suarez or Giroud, or looking for greater upside than the likes of Benteke or Berbatov, you could do a lot worse than targeting Lukaku, starting this week with his trip to Southampton.



If you're leading your league: Lukaku does carry some risk as he does occasionally start on the bench, and with West Brom safe, there is at least some incentive to play Long as Lukaku looks set to return to Chelsea in the summer. With the low ownership numbers seen across this team, this might be one side to ignore if the onus is on your opponent to make ground on you.



If you're chasing the pack: Lukaku looks like a good player to back to differentiate your team, even if we're not crazy about the underlying data observed in his dashboard. It's a bit disconcerting that he hasn't yet netted against of the league's best teams so that trip to City starts to look like a two-pointer but you'd really fancy him at home to Wigan and the potential penalty duties do give him the chance to contribute against anyone. Despite that home game with Wigan, there really isn't too much to get excited about elsewhere in this team, so while you'd obviously play Morrison if you own him, I wouldn't be rushing out to bring him in given the other available options.



Wigan - @WBA, SWA

Wigan are possibly the hardest team to deal with for the double gameweek as they get some fairly favourable fixtures and have players able to take advantage, yet haven't really been able to play with any consistency so far this year. One plus is that the fixtures surrounding the double are also fairly useful with two home games (TOT and AVL) and then a tough trip to Arsenal.



If you're leading your league: As with the other non-elite teams, it's likely that the best pure-points-maximization strategies lie away from Wigan and you're almost certainly better served simply plugging Tevez in for Suarez or Bale for Cazorla, or whichever transfer blocks your opponents teams the best. While I'm a big fan of Maloney and Kone, there's a reason they're are owned by 5% or less managers and that lack of consistency makes them a risk you don't need to take if you're in a position of power.



If you're chasing the pack:If you need to take a risk then Kone, and to a lesser extent Maloney look like great options to try. Kone grades out slightly below Lukaku in terms of the model, but if you were going to give a range of outcomes, the mode might be higher for the Wigan man given the easier fixtures and the higher chance that Lukaku is benched or simply shut out against City. As for Maloney, he is sensational value at 5.1m, but the sticking point is that transfers are limited and his lower ceiling makes it harder to justify using a four-pointer on. If however things are desperate and you absolutely need to roll the dice, he looks like by far the best budget midfield play for the doubles.

Gameweek 34 Projections

Defensive projections

Learn About Tableau

Attacking projections

Learn About Tableau

Individual projections

Learn About Tableau

Gameweek 33 Preview

Clean Sheet Rankings

Learn About Tableau

Attacking Rankings

Learn About Tableau

Individual Rankings

Learn About Tableau

Lineup Lessons: Gameweek 31

Arsenal

Fabianski, Sagna, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Monreal, Arteta, Rosicky, Ramsey, Gervinho, Cazorla, Giroud

Subs: Szczesny, Vermaelen, Podolski, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Coquelin, Jenkinson, Gibbs



Fabianski got the start between the sticks and despite conceding in what looked like a very promising defensive fixture, he'll represent tremendous value at the GK position if he can keep that job. I wouldn't bet on that for the long term but if your holding someone who looks playable in virtually every game remaining (like Begovic, for example) I'd be okay taking that risk as, if nothing else, it'll free some cash up rather than holding two 5.0m options, one of whom will possibly never play. I'm amazed how Podolski has been marginalised in the second half of the season but needless to say he, along with the other midfield/forward hybrid options don't look very ownable right now. Cazorla was a great play this week due to the fixture but I wouldn't get too carried away with his success as the underlying stats are still only so-so and he doesn't carry the kind of upside you get with Bale or possibly Mata. That said, the fixtures continue to look promising and in Walcott's absence he's the safest way to tap into this Arsenal side.



Aston Villa

Guzan, Lowton, Vlaar, Baker, Bennett, Sylla, Westwood, Bannan, Weimann, Benteke, Agbonlahor

Subs: Given, El Ahmadi, N'Zogbia, Delph, Bowery, Dawkins, Lichaj



Not too much excitement here and N'Zogbia's place on the bench confirms his brief flash of fantasy relevance was merely a mirage. Somehow Benetke continues to put up excellent stats in this side and remains very ownable despite his lack of surrounding talent (though to be fair Weimann and Agbonlahor are a decent duo).



Chelsea

Cech, Azpilicueta, Ivanovic, Terry, Bertrand, Mikel, Lampard, Moses, Oscar, Marin, Torres

Subs: Turnbull, Cole, Luiz, Ramires, Hazard, Benayoun, Ba



Benitez was up to his old tricks, rotating Hazard, Mata, Ba and Cole with one eye on the upcoming FA Cup fixture and his team was duly punished by a Southampton side who are continuing to impress after a shaky run of form threatened to drag them into the relegation fight. Given the fact they won the game, the future headaches are likely to continue (especially as they are also still in Europe), starting with the loss of their double gameweek in GW33. This may however provide an opportunity to mix and match assets to take advantage of more doubles, so long as sufficient planning is undertaken. They do play in Europe this week but the game is at Stamford Bridge, and after this week's loss at Southampton, one would imagine the majority of the fantasy stars will be restored this week. Despite his couple of goals of late, the uncertainty surrounding Ba's playing time prevents me from throwing him into that category I'm afraid.



Everton

Howard, Jagielka, Heitinga, Distin, Baines, Coleman, Gibson, Osman, Mirallas, Jelavic, Anichebe

Subs: Mucha, Oviedo, Naismith, Hitzlsperger, Barkley, Stones, Duffy



Without seeing the game it's hard to tell from average position charts, but I believe Everton spent at least part of this game with a back three, which fits their personnel quite nicely, allowing Heitinga and Distin to play, while avoiding the awkward shoe-horning of someone into that right back spot who doesn't really fit. The key for fantasy purposes would be Baines' potentially advanced role, though the data from this one game doesn't suggest a radical change. Everton's fixtures make me really question whether this move would be enough to compensate for a presumed reduction in defensive point potential.



Fulham

Schwarzer, Riether, Senderos, Hangeland, Riise, Duff, Karagounis, Sidwell, Dejagah, Ruiz, Berbatov

Subs: Etheridge, Frimpong, Richardson, Hughes, Rodallega, Frei, Emanuelson



Nothing really to note here with little interest in this team other than the usual suspects in defense and Dimitar continuing to Dimitar. Be careful with those fixtures though before penciling the Bulgarian in for the remainder of the year.



Liverpool

Reina, Johnson, Agger, Carragher, Jose Enrique, Lucas, Gerrard, Henderson, Coutinho, Downing, Suarez

Subs: Jones, Sturridge, Coates, Suso, Sterling, Shelvey, Skrtel



Sturridge starting on the bench was a real blow as he was forecast for a big game by the model but one certainly wouldn't expect that to be a trend and the former Chelsea man looks set to be a good play again this week. With other double gameweek options developing, it's possible that Sturridge is the better Liverpool front man to keep here, freeing up the Suarez-level money to use on the van Persie's of the world when playing twice in a week. Not too much else to note in this side, and while I've been impressed with Coutinho's on the field work, his underlying stats are underwhelming thus he remains a very speculative 7.0m flyer rather than a logical investment of mid level cash.



Man City

Hart, Zabaleta, Kompany, Lescott, Clichy, Nasri, Barry, Yaya Toure, Silva, Dzeko, Tevez

Subs: Pantilimon, Kolarov, K Toure, Milner, Sinclair, Garcia, Aguero



I've long given up speculating on this lineup and the thought of Aguero finishing the season with less playing time than Andreas Weimann and Jamie Mackie is enough to bring one to tears, but alas, Mancini has shown distain for winning games all year so let's move on. The team fared just fine without the Argentinian this week and have created a decent haul of chances of late, suggesting there's hope that some value can be squeezed from this team for the remainder of the season. You wouldn't want to invest this week of course with a trip to Old Trafford on deck but after that they face a fairly favourable schedule and if the team suggests they're ready to show their true talent they could represent some useful high end differentiation, particularly in Silva and Aguero (if he's played).



Man Utd

De Gea, Rafael, Smalling, Vidic, Buttner, Valencia, Anderson, Carrick, Young, Kagawa, Rooney

Subs: Lindegaard, Evra, Evans, Nani, Cleverley, Powell, Welbeck



Widespread changes here, as expected, with the Chelsea game just two days later, so we shouldn't read much into any of these decisions. With United no longer competing on any other fronts, we will hopefully see the starters returned to the first team for the remainder of the year, though the fact that the title is also virtually over does increase the risk of players being given the odd game off to give youngsters their games or give players with single digit appearances enough games to earn a winners medal. The loss to Chelsea also guaranteed the double gameweeks for GW33, and the likes of van Persie will become hot topics in the next week or so.



Newcastle

Elliot, Simpson, Yanga-M'Biwa, S Taylor, Anita, Cabaye, Sissoko, Gutierrez, Obertan, Gouffran, Cisse

Subs: Harper, Perch, Good, Gosling, Birigimana, Marveaux, Campbell



At this point in the year, we would normally be concerned that a team like Newcastle might take their proverbial foot off the pedal with nothing left to play for, but after some poor results and form, they find themselves in a position where they're not technically safe from relegation. For fantasy purposes that is arguably a good thing as it ensures the team will continue to play hard, though that still doesn't answer the question of who one would want to target here. The starting lineup is pretty settled other than Obertan and Marveaux but finding value is still somewhat tricky.



Norwich

Camp, Martin, Turner, Bassong, Garrido, Howson, Johnson, Snodgrass, E Bennett, Hoolahan, Kamara

Subs: Steer, Whittaker, Holt, Fox, Becchio, Tierney, Tettey



We're seeing rotation up front between Holt, Kamara and Becchio, though with three starts in a row and some solid underlying stats, I would probably lean towards Kamara if pressed. Given his price (5.0m) and the arguable position that van Persie is a must own player for United' double, it's possible that he might have a place in our thoughts given a lack of too many other 5.0m options, especially given the home fixtures against Swansea and Reading in the next three weeks. The rest of this side is fairly predictable, though unfortunately so are the mediocre returns.



QPR

Julio Cesar, Bosingwa, Samba, Hill, Traore, Townsend, Mbia, Jenas, Taarabt, Zamora, Remy 

Subs: Green, Park, Mackie, Granero, Onuoha, Ben Haim, Hoilett



Can we stop talking about this team yet? In reality their season is over, though Remy at least gives us fantasy fans something to talk about. 11 SiB in the last five games is a decent haul and offers promise for the final weeks of the season, starting this week with a home game against Wigan. If you're sat on a ~7.0m player and could use the extra million to significantly improve elsewhere I'd be interested in Remy, but considering the weakness of his team, I'd be hesitant to put too much faith in him continuing to score goals at his current rate.



Reading

Taylor, Kelly, Pearce, Mariappa, Shorey, Leigertwood, Karacan, Guthrie, McAnuff, Robson-Kanu, Pogrebnyak

Subs: McCarthy, Gunter, Le Fondre, Hunt, McCleary, Morrison, Akpan



Remy stops us ignoring QPR altogether, while Reading's version of that player can't get in the first team. Bad news for them but good news for me as I don't need to waste any more precious kilobytes talking about this awful side.



Southampton

Boruc, Clyne, Yoshida, Hooiveld, Shaw, Schneiderlin, Cork, S Davis, Puncheon, Lambert, Rodriguez

Subs: K Davis, Fonte, Ramirez, Fox, Forren, Ward-Prowse, Do Prado



Clyne and Puncheon appear to have been reinstated after brief absences and can probably both be owned again with confidence (though you'd be wanting to rely on them as good bench options rather than true every starters). Rodriguez has been putting up some very useful numbers of late and will be touched on in this week's fanning the flames while the rest of the team remains largely unchanged.



Stoke

Begovic, Cameron, Shawcross, Huth, Wilson, Shotton, Whelan, Nzonzi, Walters, Crouch, Jerome

Subs: Sorensen, Jones, Owen, Adam, Whitehead, Kightly, Wilkinson



Wilson is possibly the best value defender in the game right now and his 1% ownership really just speaks to managers not reviewing all their options at the end of a long season. The 1.9m saving from Shawcross or 1.6m from Huth should be no brainers for the numerous managers who hold that useful pair. Not much to interest us on the attacking side of the pitch though, though at the least the main options are fairly entrenched in Pulis' weekly lineup.



Sunderland

Mignolet, Bardsley, O'Shea, Bramble, Rose, N'Diaye, Gardner, Johnson, McClean, Sessegnon, Graham

Subs: Westwood, Kilgallon, Larsson, Colback, Mangane, Wickham, Mandron



With a new manager coming in it's tough to make any assumptions about long term playing time, but looking at the bench suggests that there aren't a great deal of options for Di Canio to opt for.



Swansea

Vorm, Tiendalli, Chico, Williams, Davies, Britton, de Guzman, Routledge, Dyer, Hernandez, Michu

Subs: Tremmel, Bartley, Monk, Ki, Lamah, Moore, Shechter



Nothing happening here and despite the double in GW36, the upcoming fixtures for Swansea paired with a lack of need to win games makes me nervous about grabbing anyone from this side.



Tottenham

Friedel, Walker, Dawson, Vertonghen, Naughton, Parker, Dembele, Bale, Sigurdsson, Lennon, Adebayor

Subs: Archer, Assou-Ekotto, Caulker, Livermore, Holtby, Huddlestone, Defoe



We'll keep an eye on that Assou Ekotto situation but I would expect him to be restored this week and wouldn't suggest Naughton will be a long term option. Regardless, Dawson is the pick here given his combination of security and price tag. The front options all look pretty safe in this side though with Defoe lurking it's always tough to categorically state that Sigurdsson or even Adebayor won't be rotated every now and then. The other wordly Bale however looks undroppable and the bye in GW33 may warrant suffering through given his form and the promising remaining fixtures after the off week.



West Ham

Jaaskelainen, Reid, O'Brien, Collins, Demel, Nolan, Jarvis, Diame, O'Neil, Carroll, Vaz Te

Subs: Henderson, McCartney, Tomkins, Collison, Taylor, C Cole, Chamakh



No lineup notes here, though we do need to talk about Carroll in more depth, who has put up some very solid numbers since returning from injury six weeks ago. He'll miss this week's trip to Anfield due to the terms of his loan deal but might represent a sneaky option (though still overpriced) for the final stages of the season.



West Brom

Foster, Olsson, Ridgewell, McAuley, Jones, Yacob, Brunt, Dorrans, Mulumbu, Long, Lukaku

Subs: Myhill, Popov, Tamas, Thomas, Rosenberg, Odemwingie, Fortune



No real issues here either and it's good to once again see Long and Lukaku deployed together. With little left to play for there is a twinge of doubt in my mind that Clarke may start leaning towards playing Long over Lukaku given the fact that the Chelsea man will not be returning next season, but for now that point seems moot.



Wigan

Robles, Scharner, Alcaraz, Figueroa, Boyce, McCarthy, Gomez, Beausejour, Maloney, McManaman, Kone

Subs: Al Habsi, Caldwell, Di Santo, Henriquez, McArthur, Espinoza, Stam



I am personally amazed that Robles is holding off Al Habsi in goal, as I consider the latter to be one the better 'keepers in the league. Robles' 4.0m price tag makes him viable as a rotation/bench option, though I'd have serious concerns about assuming that number one shirt is his to keep. Though we are seeing some decent reliability in this lineup, it's still hard to see value outside of the much fancied pair of Kone and Maloney.

Gameweek 31 Preview

Clean Sheet Rankings

Learn About Tableau

Attacking Rankings

Learn About Tableau

Individual Rankings



Note: Individual rankings are based on an historical average data model only and no account is taken of expected playing time or rotation risk. Where a players is confirmed as injured or suspended I endeavor to remove them for the below listings but assumptions regarding rotation are not included in the below analysis.

Learn About Tableau

Player share of SiB

The new Tableau just launched and they've added treemaps, a form a visualisation I've been meaning to add to the site for some time. Now that Tableau carry this format, my existing data is already ready to go, so below is the first of likely many treemaps, here showing players' share of shots inside the box, split between games at home and away. Player share is given on a percentage basis based on the minutes they have played so you don't need to adjust for playing time. However, standard caveats on small samples should be noted, hence I've excluded all players with less than 900 total minutes played:

Learn About Tableau

Late season form for mid table teams

You don't hear it so much these days - or at least I don't, having left the world of 24/7 Sky Sports News to one in which my weekly football dose is received in 90 minute spells with little or no nonsense chat - but anytime a mid table team would lose towards the end of the season, we always heard that they had one eye on their upcoming holiday and had mentally checked out by late March. If this is indeed the case then the fantasy impact would be huge as (a) we would obviously wish to avoid such players and (b) playing someone like Swansea would suddenly become a potentially easier fixture than facing a team battling to stay in the league.



The below assessment is very simplistic and should not be taken as an attempt to definitively answer this question. It's merely a first attempt to shed a little bit of light on this topic and see if there's something here to investigate. The analysis contains a number of limitations, not limited to:

• I have not adjusted for strength of schedule, so while I'm comparing a team's form through 30 weeks versus the final eight weeks, if teams happen to play the best eight teams in the league to end of the season and lose most of them, the analysis would flag this as an exception where as in reality such results were pretty much expected. 


• I have not factored in anything surrounding managerial changes or player transfers so if you believe that January signing or interim manager turned a team around, this wouldn't necessarily be explained below.


• I have not gone into why teams are winning or losing, only the end results. As we know, results can be misleading when judging how well a team is playing, and mere randomness would account for some fluctuation in points, even a team continued to generate and concede the exact same number of chances every week.

With those caveats in mind, let's take a look at the data. We have plotted the points per game of teams through the first 30 weeks of the season (PPG30) against their points per game through the final eight games (PPG8). I like this cutoff point as (a) it's the stage of the season we're at now and (b) by the 30 game mark you have a nice group of teams who are very likely safe but have little chance of making a run at a European spot (this year this is probably everyone between West Brom and Norwich). Our simple hypothesis would be that if a team averaged 1.8 PPG through the first 30 games, they should continue to do so through the final eight weeks (again, ignoring quality of opponent for a minute). What we would deem an interesting result is whether certain teams (say, those in the top six) continue to perform a ready rate, while others (say, those in mid table security) see a noticeable decline in results. For this reason, we have colour coded the chart to highlight each team's position at the 30 game mark (simply split between, top six (T6), mid table (mid) and the bottom six (B6):

Learn About Tableau

The only obvious conclusion from the above chart is admittedly that nothing is obvious, but if you bear with me for a second, there are a couple of points to note:

1. We've seen some pretty incredible changes in fortunes for teams at almost every position with teams like 06-07 Man United going from a 2.5 PPG average to 1.75 over the final 8 games, while 06-07 West Ham and 11-12 Wigan went from a 0.8 PPG average to finishing with championship form (2.25).


2. While we have seen differences every season, there is clearly a strong trend here (r-squared = 0.88) so our starting point for teams should still be that we expect business as usual, rather than working on the assumption that the QPR and Readings of the world are all set for late season surges.

Let's pull some of the key trends from the data to see if anything else jumps out:

Learn About Tableau

On the face of it, the above data is quite promising with regards to identifying a genuine trend of late season declines/surges. We see more decline among top six teams and more improvement among the bottom six teams, though this is to be expected as those teams have further to fall/rise and - at least at the very top - we will have some seasons where the best teams are resting players once the league is effectively over if they are involved in other competitions. The key though are those middle teams, who have shown a much higher propensity for declining (47/80) rather than improving (33/80), which seems to fit with the popular narrative. 




Less exciting is the above chart which shows that the majority of mid table teams (66%) improving or declining by just 0.5 GPG either way, though again, this was always likely given that they have less scope to rise or fall. The fact that we have three teams who declined by a full point per game all within the mid table category, is however a plus.



So, it looks like we have something here, namely that mid table teams do appear more likely to decline than improve, presumably with the teams at the bottom of the league vulturing their points more often that not. Let's dig a bit deeper though and see how they improve/decline in terms of goals scored/conceded.

Learn About Tableau

There are a few questions coming out of this data which might be worth looking at in a future post, but for now let's stick with those mid table teams. We can see that they lost ground both in terms of goals scored and goals conceded, though the decline on the defensive side was more pronounced with the average decline being close to half a goal per game conceded. This again fits with expectations as it's easier to stay focused on the attacking side of the pitch, while mundane marking from corners or tracking a midfield run might seem less important when the end result isn't overly important.



So what does this all mean? Well, that's hard to say on such a high level but I think there's enough here to at least give us pause for thought before buying someone from the Swanseas and Fulhams of the world (particularly on the defensive side of the pitch). Saying that though, it should be noted that even given the above, teams in the bottom six still conceded, on average, 0.2 GPG more than the mid table teams over the end of season run in, so replacing those mid table defenders will be tricky. Considering that the offensive declines have been lower across the board, it might be advisable to try and put less emphasis on defense, trying to grab a couple of premium players to start every week then spot starting one of the cheaper options where you can. History would suggest that a four, or even a five, man defense would be inadvisable during the late stages of the season. 

Gameweek 30 Preview Data

Clean Sheet Rankings

Learn About Tableau

Attacking Rankings

Learn About Tableau

Individual Rankings

Learn About Tableau

Dousing the fire, fanning the flames: Gameweek 29

A slight change of pace with this week's fanning the flames piece due to a couple of observations over the last few weeks and months. First, I felt that old graphic didn't really show enough information that might lead us to fan said flame (or, more likely douse those hyped up fires). Second, looking at the data on a single week basis was always going to lead to a large number of 'variances' due to the ridiculously small samples involved. I've therefore currently included three gameweeks of data, but have built the model to allow for anywhere between one and five to be included so this may again be tweaked in the future. Finally, this is a piece which should probably run every two or three weeks to avoid too much repetition, so this new format lends itself more to that time frame.



First then, let's look at the new graphic and a couple of lines to illuminate the way the data is intended to be read:

Powered by Tableau

The G, xG, A, xA, P and xP simply set out the expected goals, assists and points for the selected player over the defined period (in this case three weeks). The only point to note is that the expected values are based on the actual shot totals accrued, rather than the model which uses historic averages. The key reason for differences therefore will be players converting chances at a higher than expected rate, a telltale sign that we way wish to temper our excitement after a big game or two.



The charts are split into two categories: trends and full season data. The former show the players' performance over the last x weeks (again, this time we're using three) and the latter shows the conversion rates for the full season. The key point here of course is to illustrate unusually high conversion rates to suggest that a player's uptick in "form" may be unsustainable or that it is a genuine product of taking more quality shots etc.



SiB% Percentage of a player's shots taken inside the box

SoT% Percentage of a player's shots that hit the target (a rate that limited research suggests is a sustainable skills rather than goals per SoT which appears to be heavily luck driven)

CC% Percentage of player's created chances converted into assists



Without further delay then, on with the analysis:



Gabriel Agbonlahor

It's not that Agbonlahor is totally without appeal, it's just that for 0.3m you can upgrade to the legitimately excellent Benteke, who is still held by an inexplicably low 11% of managers. As we can see from his data here, his 'success' has been more attributable to higher conversion rates, with his goal coming on just two SoT, which then of course earned him a dubious three bonus points which are still massively correlated to goals.

Status: Sell



Gareth Bale

I try not to dwell on the elite players in these pieces as you all know that Bale is one of, if not the best midfielder in the league right now, but just to emphasise that point: a quick scroll through each of the highlighted players will show that only three players boasted an xP of 10 or more, with Bale topping them all with a stunning 16. This score was supported by 20 (twenty!) shots and 12 created chances, so while it's inevitable that he can't quite continue at this rate for the rest of the season, there is more than enough here to justify any price rises or the large ownership numbers. The only knock on Bale is the lack of double gameweeks on his horizon, which puts him at a slight disadvantage to some of his premium peers.

Status: Buy



Dimitar Berbatov

Berbatov appears to have lost some of his luster of late, seeing him lose 170k followers over the past few weeks. That will likely change after back-to-back scoring games and there's enough evidence in the data to suggest his success may be sustainable. You don't love this week's trip to White Hart Lane but otherwise Fulham enjoy a decent run for the remainder of the year and Berbatov is well placed to take advantage of those fixtures. There's some concern about the rate at which he's hit the target of late, but the Bulgarian continues to take quality shots and is helped out by his penalty duties to supplement his points haul. He isn't as flashy as the likes of Benteke or Lukaku (who admittedly, I hype all the time) but his ownership numbers are now considerably below that pair (along with other mid level favourites like Lambert, Fletcher and Sturridge) and thus he deserves some attention.

Status: Buy



Yohan Cabaye

I love Cabaye and given my complaints in the past about a lack of central midfielders in the league who can genuinely dominate a game for 90 minutes, I'm delighted to see him emerge as a force at Newcastle. The shot totals are great too but that SiB% is worrying and needless to say he won't continue to hit the target at a 50% clip is he continues to shoot from long distance (even if he can shoot with the accuracy shown this week with his delightful free kick). His goalscoring threat is, of course, supplemented by a very good assist potential, though for one reason or another his teammates haven't helped him to date in that department (one assist from 36 created chances). The upcoming trip to Wigan is harder than it sounds and given the follow up date with Man City at the Etihad, there's strong reason to hold off here for a couple of weeks. After that though Cabaye is an interesting pickup at 6.6m if you aren't convinced by Sissoko's prospects in this side.

Status: Consider investment after GW31.



Santi Cazorla

Cazorla is another once-loved option who lost 150k owners in a matter of weeks before bouncing back with a couple of good performances in GW26-27. The data above (only based on two games given Arsenal's off week in GW29) shows nothing out of the ordinary other than a slightly higher tendency to take shots inside the box (and of course of a note of caution that his two goals came against a weak Villa side). Arsenal's next four gameweeks are pretty sensational on paper, and even extended to the end of the year look pretty solid, meaning that the likes of Cazorla could easily be slotted into your lineup and relied upon from here on if you so desire.

Status: Buy in a vacuum, though he's still behind Bale in the model



Papiss Cisse

I was set to write that Newcastle have really turned a corner of late, adding 12 goals over their last 6 games, but a closer look at the data makes me a touch nervous. Over that period that have created, on average, 25% less SiB than other teams did against those same opponents, with the only positive being the +47% performance against Chelsea (without that game they average -39%). There have been plenty of long range efforts, but while I sung the praises of Cabaye above, I'm not willing to heavily back a team who are relying on lottery-shots for success, especially when it comes to judging Cisse. The model sees Cisse as more of a Benteke/Berbatov/Fletcher type player, and I don't see anything to really justify the premium needed to upgrade to him over that trio (among others). One positive is his low ownership number, though given that required premium, I'd personally prefer to hold the more popular option this time, and try and differentiate elsewhere, where better value can be found.

Status: Sell based on that price tag



Jack Collison

It appears that Nolan, Noble and Cole are all short term absentees so the increase in playing time for Collison will likely be short lived.

Status: Sell



Stewart Downing

Downing is a potentially perfect Moneyball type player, as the very mention of his name sends scores of fans into giggling hysterics, particularly if accompanied by any kind of praise. His apparent security in this very promising Liverpool side is certainly a plus, as is the rate he's been taking close range shots (which has clearly improved of late too, whether by chance or design is less clear). The problem is still a lack of volume of efforts though, and his goal this week was obviously a touch fortunate (though in his defense, he did have to be in a good position and then finish it off). At 5.7m he's possibly a touch overpriced as he really belongs in the same group as the Puncheon/Pilkington/Maloney group, but if you have a small amount of cash lying around and are currently invested in someone whose form or playing time has suffered, I don't think it's crazy to take a look at the oft-mocked winger. The next four games look solid (though three are on the road) and a lack of double gameweek potential does hurt him over several of his peers, but his 1% ownership is a factor and anybody who gets to play with Sturridge and Suarez every week with little competition for playing time looks okay to me.

Status: Cautious buy, though I'd still say better upside can be found in his price bracket.



Marouane Fellaini

The trends for Fellaini show a fantasy player in decline, though in fairness he is coming down from a frankly insane platform where we was racking up elite SiB totals on a weekly basis for a mid level price tag. The fixtures don't look too promising for Everton, at least for the next three weeks, after which they get the double gameweek (though with half of that coming at the Emirates I wouldn't be forecasting huge totals for Fellaini and co that week either). A look at the midfield points standings shows that no one ahead of Fellaini can be had for close to his price tag, and that probably holds up for projections too, though with the tougher fixtures and his declining stats, I'd venture he's probably closer to the 6-7.0m group now than his is to the truly elite options above him.

Status: Still ownable but he shouldn't be targeted until GW33 for the double gameweek.



Junior Hoilett

Hoilett is a useful player, though as a Canadian resident I am obliged to offer a comment that he really needs to give up on his chances of playing for England and come to the great white north. Moving on from that though, Hoilett looks like a classic regression candidate, having hit the target with every one of his shots these past couple of weeks, while getting his three created chances converted into two goals. While I like Remy quite a bit, I think we can conclude that QPR aren't ready to shatter conversion records this year, so I'll pass on Hoilett until we see quite a lot more from the Canadian.

Status: Sell



Shinji Kagawa

Three shots, three on target and three goals (extremely well taken I might add). However, the fact that we only have one game of data here illustrates the chief concern here: playing time. I love the idea of Kagawa, particularly if deployed further up field, but nothing to date suggests that situation is sustainable.

Status: Sell



Arouna Kone

Kone's numbers look good and haven't really fluctuated over the past run of games so there's good reason to buy what the Ivorian has been selling of late. There's a lot to like with Wigan's fixtures, and aside from the trip to the Etihad, you probably feel good starting Kone in every game from here on in. The fact that Wigan absolutely have to try and win every game is a further bonus as the traditional late season slumps may start to kick in for some of the mid table teams (on another note, has anyone ever actually researched this? Do mid table teams tend to 'slack off' towards the end of the year or is that just a convenient narrative to explain natural slumps in form? Sounds like a project to me). Anyway, at 6.5m he's right in that group with a few of the players mentioned above (and below) and his upcoming fixtures and low ownership number may well propel him towards the top of that class.

Status: Buy



Rickie Lambert

There's really nothing to be said about Lambert that hasn't already featured in these very electronic pages. His consistency has been excellent for a mid level option, with 13 games of 5 or more points and 2 points or more every week bar one. He lacks the upside of some of the flashier picks (as evidence by just three double digit games in 29 appearances) but he makes up for it with his penalty duties which help flatten his production and allow him the potential to contribute against any team. Though the results have taken a turn for the worse, Southampton are still creating plenty of chances and scoring goals at a decent clip, and thus Lambert looks well placed to continue his useful fantasy form. The fixtures alone wouldn't necessarily turn me off, but together with his slightly higher price tag, I'd suggest that Lambert is probably towards the bottom of the best mid-level options, but he remains ownable and moving him on isn't a priority if your team is struggling.

Status: Hold



Romelu Lukaku

Another excellent mid level forward, Lukaku has been simply sensational this year and his star would be even brighter had he not been held back through a lack of playing time. For context, the list of players with a better goals per 90 minute rate than Lukaku starts and ends with Javier Hernandez (who has only played for 690 minutes). Lukaku's rate of 0.86 goals every 90 minutes tops Suarez (0.79), van Persie (0.77) and Rooney (0.66) while obliterating his mid-level peers in Sturridge (0.54), Benteke (0.50) and Lambert (0.46).    Just imagine where we'd be if Steve Clark had read the Moneyball piece over at Fantasy Football Scout. As it is, this isn't a great time to invest, with a couple of tricky away trips (Stoke and West Ham) followed by Arsenal at home and then a week off. GW34-37 look great though, particularly if sweetened by a double gameweek, so though I wouldn't necessarily be looking to pull the trigger now, he's certainly someone to keep in mind.

Status: Monitor, and wait for better fixtures



Leon Osman

I like Osman quite a bit and would give him a look were Everton a team that was steam rolling opponents, as they were for a while in the early stages of the season. Now, however, while it's unfair to say they're in poor form, they are certainly more inconsistent than before and thus the fringe players like Osman can sometimes get left out in the cold for weeks on end in terms of points production. I'm still okay owning the alpha dog (Fellaini) in this team but Osman isn't cheap enough to offer value as a bit part player in an increasingly inconsistent team.

Status: Sell



Steve Pienaar

Pienaar is essentially in the same situation as Osman, though he does bring a better assist threat. Still, his price puts him in an awkward spot between those who can be relied on more readily and those who come at a substantial discount. That, plus the aforementioned struggles and upcoming fixture list make the South African a sell too.

Status: Sell



Loic Remy

I had heard about Remy before he came to the Premier League, but had never seen him play until his scoring debut against West Ham. I was impressed then and nothing has countered those initial feelings in the subsequent weeks. His SoT% over the last few games is obviously too high but his 50% rate for the year looks fine and while his G/SoT again looks unsustainable, he's clearly doing enough to offer some value at 5.9m, just be careful you're not assuming he's going to score in three of every four starts. Despite the hype around Redknapp, I would offer a word of caution that under his guidance the team is averaging 37% less SiB that opponent adjusted league average (-7% under Hughes) and this has actually declined of late with a -48% rate over the last 10 games. They may be more "committed", "gritty" or "harder to beat" but in fantasy we generally care about volume of chances and only the truly special players can overcome a lack of chances to become an elite fantasy option. Whether or not Remy is there is questionable but the encouraging point is that while QPR have struggled to create quality chances, a large percentage of them (42%) are falling at Remy's feet and thus he can still succeed despite his teams limitations. The fixtures look good enough and Remy comes at a nice discount, suggesting he too deserves a look in this crowded mid level group.

Status: Buy



Morgan Schneiderlin

Schneiderlin's shot totals look balanced but only in the same way that the return on investment earned on sticking your money under the mattress is consistent every year. Simply put, he isn't a fantasy option.

Status: Sell



Stephane Sessegnon

Sessegnon was one of the players I was interested in coming into the year and while it feels like he never really got going this campaign, his totals will actually end being okay. I'm not crazy about this Sunderland team's consistency and I do fear that they could be one of those teams who simply drift through the rest of the season if the results suggest they are relatively safe in the next couple of weeks. The next six games look pretty tough after this week's visit of Norwich and for 7.1m Sessegnon is too expensive to be spot starting sporadically.

Status: Sell



Gylfi Sigurdsson

Good player, bad situation. Lennon and Dempsey are both said to be close to a return, with Adebayor also rated as 75% to play this week to further cloud the playing time at White Hart Lane. I like this Spurs team and really want another way to access it outside of Bale but Villas Boas hasn't shown too much faith in Sigurdsson when everyone is fit and I'm not willing to bet 7.8m that he changes his mind at this point in the year.

Status: Sell



David Silva

Oh David, what happened? Once hailed as the best fantasy midfielder in the league, his shot totals are now so meager that even his ultra-elite assist potential can only rescue him to the point of justifying a price tag about 2.0m less than his own. I've been waiting for City to turn things around all year, and while they've shown flashes at times, the inability to get their best players on the pitch and in the key positions has cost them and anyone who invested in their stars. The upcoming games don't look great and with plenty of other elite midfield options, the great Spaniard simply isn't an option anymore.

Status: Sell



Luis Suarez

Suarez's trend numbers look a touch worrying, but remember that they are based on just two games worth of data given Liverpool's lack of fixture in GW27. Needless to say he hasn't justified his insane points return over those couple of weeks (it would be impossible to do so based on an average model like mine) but there is really nothing in the data or the narrative to cause any concern here. The only slight knock are the fixtures which see Liverpool face three away games in the next four (all to teams fighting to stay in the league) compounded by a lack of a double gameweek enjoyed by some of his peers. Still, right now you're getting van Persie production for a 20% discount so you can't have everything.

Status: Buy



Carlos Tevez

Meh. Like Silva, it's hard to totally write Tevez off as these players are so talented that they can make a humble blogger look rather foolish, but the odds just aren't in Tevez's favour with his recent 'form' looking to be as much attributable to a higher G/SoT conversion rate than some sustainable skill improvement or tactical revelation. Throw in a continued lack of guaranteed playing time and you have a player whose production is closer to the pack behind him rather than the elite pair ahead of him and thus he's another City prospect I'm out on for now.

Status: Sell



Andreas Weimann

Weimann has done really well when he's played and he actually rated atop the model projections for last week but I filtered him out due to the lack of sample size of his production. He's creating a lot of chances to supplement a healthy shot total, while his ratios have remained solid and consistent throughout his starts. With Bent close to a return and N'Zogbia/Agbonlahor also competing for finite time alongside Benteke, I'm a bit nervous about how often Weimann will play, but for 5.0m he's certainly worth a look and would make a nice third forward for those needing to free up cash to use elsewhere. The playing time risk might make me hesitate about using a transfer on him (for fear you'll need to sell again very soon) but if you're lucky enough to have the wildcard in hand, Weimann is a nice option to supplement your elite picks.

Status: Cautious buy in the right situation



Yaya Toure

The good news is that he's probably offering close to the same value as teammate Silva (with a slightly lower assist threat) but I'm not sure that's even enough to justify his price tag. Yaya seems to be used in an advanced role more sparingly this season and given City's upcoming games I just can't get excited about him anymore.

Status: Sell